Cannabis legalization continues to gain momentum across the U.S., with states like Minnesota, Delaware and Ohio embracing recreational in 2023 and 2024, while Florida prepares to vote on a similar measure in November.
Despite widespread public support and state-level reforms, the Senate remains a major roadblock for federal cannabis legalization.
As 34 Senate seats are up for grabs in the 2024 election, the outcome could significantly affect cannabis reform in the U.S. Senate.
The Senate has long posed a challenge to cannabis reform efforts, despite growing public support. For example, the Marijuana Opportunity, Reinvestment, and Expungement (MORE) Act, which aimed to decriminalize cannabis at the federal level and expunge certain cannabis-related convictions, passed the House in both 2020 and 2022 but stalled in the Senate. The bill faced opposition largely due to the Senate's filibuster rule, which requires 60 votes to advance most legislation.
Other cannabis-related bills, such as the SAFE Banking Act—which would allow cannabis businesses access to banking services—have also struggled to make it through the Senate despite bipartisan support.
At the moment, out of the 100 seats, 49 are GOP, 48 are Dems and 3 are Independents (Bernie Sanders, Angus King and Kyrsten Sinema).
In the 2024 elections, five swing states with strong cannabis reform momentum—Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are renewing their Senate seats. How these states vote could dramatically alter the Senate's stance on cannabis. Other key swing states like Georgia and North Carolina won’t be renewing seats in the Senate in the next election.
In Arizona (a State that leans conservative), Kyrsten Sinema has been supportive of cannabis reform. She voted in favor of the MORE Act, sponsored the SAFE Act, and supported Arizona's legalization of recreational cannabis in 2020. While Arizona's GOP leans conservative, they have largely accepted the current cannabis laws without pushing for further restrictions.
In Michigan, Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring, according to CNN. She has consistently supported cannabis reform, including co-sponsoring the SAFE Banking Act. She is an advocate for federal decriminalization and has backed Michigan's cannabis laws. Her replacement, however, could influence the state's future stance on cannabis.
In Nevada, Jacky Rosen (D) is another pro-cannabis senator who supports federal legalization. She has voted in favor of removing cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act and has aligned herself with Nevada's growing recreational cannabis market.
In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey (D), while more cautious, has shown openness to cannabis reform. He supports medical cannabis and criminal justice reforms.
In Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin (D) has been a strong advocate for cannabis reform. She has voted in favor of various cannabis-related bills, including the MORE Act, and supports both medical and recreational cannabis legalization in Wisconsin.
If these states elect more pro-cannabis senators—or even moderate Republicans—it could increase the chances of federal cannabis reform passing in the Senate.
However, a shift toward GOP control in these states might hinder reform efforts. Historically, many Republican senators have resisted comprehensive cannabis legalization.
None of the seats in these five swing states currently held by senators supportive of cannabis reform are held by Republicans. Thus, a Republican victory in any of these states could slow down the progress toward federal cannabis legalization, given the more conservative stance of many GOP lawmakers on this issue.
Should pro-cannabis candidates retain or win Senate seats, the likelihood of passing comprehensive cannabis reform increases. With both presidential candidates—Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump—expressing support for cannabis reform, the potential for progress exists.